Voter sentiment
A survey by sxmelections.com shows a different voter sentiment than the Today poll.
From a larger sample of 650 votes, collected on the streets and online, this poll gave the UP the lead with 36.3 percent, ahead of the National Alliance (19.5) and the Democratic Party (14.6 percent). The USp is fourth with 13.5 percent and the SMCP surprises here with 8.2 percent, just enough for one seat.
Remarkably, the pollsters gave the UP 5 seats, NA and DP 3 and USp and SMCP 2 each.
We do not know with turnout the pollsters used to calculate these results, but with a 70 percent turnout, we arrived at a different seat distribution. Our calculation shows that the UP wins 5 seats outright, but no residual seats, while the NA wins 2 seats outright and 3 residual seats. The DP and the USp are both stuck on 2 seats, while the Christian Party SMCP picks up the remaining seat. This would then be the makeup of the new parliament: 5-5-2-2-1; it would make the National Alliance or the UP the lead party for a new coalition that must include the Christian Party in combination with the DP or the USp.
Today’s poll indicated a 5-4-4-2 seat distribution with the UP still in the lead, the DP and the NA with 4 seats each and 2 for the USp.
While the sxmelection.com poll indicates a margin of error of 4 percent, our experience of 2010 and 2014 shows that the real elections results can diverge wildly from what the polls suggest.
How about gut feeling as an election thermometer? We think – and at the moment we’re writing this there is no information about the actual voting trend – that the National Alliance will do much better than our own poll suggests and that it may end up with 6 seats or better, with the DP and the UP with 4 seats each and the USp with 1. It would allow for a two-party coalition, providing a sturdier foundation for the next government.
At the end of the day, all political polls are a bit like gazing in a magic glass sphere, but this is what people do around election time: guessing the outcome and its consequences.
One thing we still accept as a given: not one party will go home tonight with eight or even ten seats. On our front page you will be able to read whether we were right or wrong here.
