PHILIPSBURG – The democratic process in St. Maarten is under pressure; not due to any shenanigans but due to a rule in the Constitution and a rule in the National Ordinance Registration and Finances Political Parties.
Because a new parliament has to take office within three months after the government invokes article 59 of the constitution (dissolving parliament and calling elections), the date when political parties have to present their list of candidates was set for October 2; the election date is now November 25.
To participate in elections, parties have to register with the Electoral Council. The national ordinance registration and finances political parties states in article 16 that “a request for registration, submitted within six weeks of the day parties have to present their candidates will not be handled for the subsequent elections.”
The victim of this rule is the Party for Progress, a newcomer established by Melissa Gumbs (daughter of former Prime Minister Marcel Gumbs) and Marvio Cooks, a former candidate on the list of the (also former) Democratic Party.
The registered parties that are eligible to take part in the November 25 elections are the People’s Progressive Alliance (Gracita Arrindell), the St. Maarten Development Movement (Benjamin Ortega), the National Alliance (Silveria Jacobs), the United Democrats (Theo Heyliger or maybe Franklin Meyers), the United St. Maarten party (Frans Richardson or Rolando Brison) and the St. Maarten Christian Party (Wycliffe Smith).
The names behind brackets are the party leaders; the situation at the United Democrats is unclear, with leader Theo Heyliger in the sick bay (and having declared that 2018 were his last elections) and the just gone independent UD-stalwart Franklin Meyers announcing that he will run again; the UD will be the only vehicle available to him for another run at a seat in parliament.
What we have seen so far is that two members of the UD-faction have truly defected to the other side: Chanel Brownbill and Luc Mercelina; they are both expected to appear on the list of the USp.
What to expect? The results of the last three elections – in 2014, 2016 and 2018 – show that the electorate is getting slightly tired of voting. The turnout dropped from 69 percent in 2014 to 65 percent in 2016 and to 62 percent in 2018. In 2010, turnout stood at 71.4 percent. In 2018, more than 1,600 voters stayed home compared to 2016.
These numbers put the legitimacy of parliament in question. A party that wins, say 40 percent of the vote in an election with 23,000 eligible voters and a turnout of 62 percent, represents only 24.8 percent of the total electorate. (Such a party would win 5,704 votes from the 14,260 voters that turn up and the remaining 8,740 that stay home).
In the background plays the unhealthy influence on government matters by the Cupecoy shadow-government – a group that includes casino owner Francesco Corallo, heavy equipment operator Boykie Mendez, former MP Silvio Matser, MP Luc Mercelina, suspended MP Theo Heyliger and most likely also outgoing Minister of Tourism and Economic Affairs Stuart Johnson. The latest news is that this group has abandoned its meeting grounds in Cupecoy and is now gathering in what has been described as a ‘dinky Italian restaurant in Sandy Ground’ on the French side of the island.
There are definite shifts in the political landscape though it remains to be seen whether the trend will continue in November. Take for instance the United People’s party and the Democratic Party. In 2014, they won between them 8,553 votes; in 2018, when the two parties merges into the United Democrats, they won just 5,748 votes – a decline in support of 32.8 percent. In 2016 UP and DP were good for a combined 5,940 votes, so compared to that number the decline in 2018 was minor – but it was still there.
And what about the candidates? Theo Heyliger has always been the biggest vote getter – or vote buyer if you want to be cynical. But even Heyliger’s political star has been fading since 2014. In that year, he was still good for 1,945 votes, but in 2016 support dropped to 1,429 and in 2018 to 1,289 – a decline since 2014 with 33.7 percent. (We’ll leave the suspect 2010 results when Heyliger won close to 3,000 votes out of this equation).
The number two on the UD-list, Sarah Wescot-Williams, dipped in 2014 to 444 votes from 697 in 2014, but she recovered slightly in 2018 when 566 people voted for her.
National Alliance party leader Silveria Jacobs remains popular. She won 969 votes in 2014, 776 in 2016 and 896 in 2018. Up and down, but still solid. Former party leader William Marlin saw voter support drop from 746 in 2014 to 445 in 2018.
USp-leader Frans Richardson experienced a steady decline in voter support: from 731 in 2014, to 488 in 2016 and just 315 in 2018.
Ship jumpers Chanel Brownbill and Luc Mercelina contributed 270 and 368 votes respectively to the result of the UD in 2018 but they will now run on the list of the USp.
Ship jumpers do not always fare well after a switch. When Maurice Lake and Silvio Matser left the UP to join the ranks of the USp, they did not make it back into parliament in 2016.
Comparing results from 2014 with 2018, the fast fading political stars (with between brackets the percentage of support they lost) are Frans Richardson (57), Cornelius de Weever (50), Franklin Meyers (35) and Theo Heyliger (34). The fastest rising stars are Chanel Brownbill (65 percent up), Christophe Emmanuel (57) and Perry Geerlings (50).
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