St. Maarten’s tourism officials are playing a dangerous numbers game. The island’s leadership has touted rosy visitor figures while failing to provide credible, transparent data. This mismanagement of tourism statistics isn’t just an embarrassment—it’s a threat to our economic future. When our neighbors openly share thorough reports and we respond with a clumsy spreadsheet and PR spin, investors and airlines take note. It’s high time we call out this farce, contrast it with how others do it right, and demand an urgent fix.

A Tale of Two Islands: St. Barths vs. St. Maarten Data Transparency

St. Barths is schooling St. Maarten on how to handle tourism stats. The French neighboring island produces polished, in-depth tourism reports that break down everything from visitor origins to spending patterns.

See https://stmaartennews.com/editorials/st-barths-shares-its-tourism-data-why-cant-st-maarten/

Their latest 2023-2024 Observatoire du Tourisme report offers a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of the sector, pinpointing which markets visitors come from, how they arrive, and where they stay. This professional approach isn’t just academic – it gives St. Barths’ policymakers and businesses real insights to make smarter decisions and targeted marketing moves. In short, St. Barths treats tourism data as a strategic asset, sharing it with precision and pride.

Meanwhile, St. Maarten looks hopelessly amateur by comparison. Our tourism authorities have remained largely silent or inconsistent in releasing data, to the frustration of everyone from hoteliers to airlines. As of early 2025, St. Maarten hadn’t even published basic fourth-quarter 2024 tourism statistics. Key data is often delayed, incomplete, or never published at all. We’re essentially flying blind: local businesses and investors have no clear picture of who is visiting, how they get here, or whether arrivals are really up or down. In St. Maarten, we’re left in the dark, making decisions on gut feeling instead of facts. The contrast is staggering, and it’s entirely self-inflicted. If tiny St. Barths can produce and share meticulous tourism stats, why can’t we?

Flawed Data Collection Erodes Credibility

It’s bad enough that data is scarce; worse, the little data we have may not even be reliable. Tourism experts have revealed that St. Maarten, Aruba, and other Caribbean destinations suffer from flawed data collection methods that undermine the credibility of their numbers. In St. Maarten’s case, the problems are well-documented. Even before Hurricane Irma, there were glaring gaps: limited access to basic tourism performance data, no consistent tracking of yachting visitors, only anecdotal info on villa rentals, and virtually no public data on what government spends on tourism (World Bank Document). After Irma, it only got worse – the process of gathering arrival information broke down. With visitors often failing to complete arrival cards, official visitor counts became inconsistent and unreliable (World Bank Document). In plain terms, we don’t actually know exactly who’s coming and going.

St. Maarten is not alone in this mess. Other Caribbean countries have also struggled with outdated or patchy data collection. But that’s not an excuse – it’s a wake-up call. When the foundation of your statistics is shaky, any bragging about growth is built on sand. Investors considering a new resort, or airlines considering a new route, notice these things. They pore over arrival figures and tourism trends before committing money or flights. If our data collection is so lax that our visitor numbers might as well be guesswork, we risk losing credibility with the very partners we need. One tourism analyst bluntly warned that some islands are essentially “lying with statistics,” using questionable numbers to prop up a narrative of success. It might fool some for a while, but it won’t fool industry experts who can smell unreliable data a mile away.

Government Spin: Cherry-Picking and “Good News” Press Releases

Despite the shaky data, government officials are in overdrive trying to spin the tourism numbers into a positive story. Recently, the St. Maarten Department of Statistics (STAT) hastily released a spreadsheet of 2024 visitor figures – a document that was more of a data dump than a proper report. Officials immediately pointed to one headline number: a 16.5% increase in arrivals in 2024 compared to 2023. At first glance, that seems like great news. According to STAT’s release, 511,339 travelers arrived in 2024 versus 438,748 in 2023. The Tourism Minister and her PR team wasted no time touting this double-digit surge as evidence that “St. Maarten is back!”

But let’s dig deeper into that number. What’s actually being counted? It turns out that figure combined all “arrivals” by air – and included St. Maarten’s own residents returning home, who obviously are not tourists. In 2023, about 10% of recorded arrivals (over 43,000 people) were residents, and in 2024 around 38,000 (7%) of those counted were locals coming back. Take those out, and the growth in actual tourists is smaller – still positive, but hardly the massive boom being advertised. Moreover, by lumping cruise and stay-over visitors together in some announcements, the government muddied the waters. The cruise sector’s performance was nowhere near 16% growth; in fact, cruise passenger totals in 2024 barely inched up from the previous year, and remain below pre-pandemic highs. So what does a 16.5% “overall increase” really mean when one segment (stay-over) is rebounding but another (cruise) is stagnating? It means officials are cherry-picking statistics to craft a feel-good narrative, instead of giving us the whole truth.

This kind of spin is not just misleading – it’s counterproductive. By overhyping unverified or conflated numbers, officials risk their credibility. It’s like trying to celebrate a victory while your belt buckle is falling apart. In fact, one veteran tourism commentator described the situation aptly: promoting more tourism without fixing our data and structural issues is like using one hand to wave the flag and the other hand to hold up your pants. The government’s upbeat press statements are the flag-waving – trying to signal triumph – but behind the scenes our tourism product’s pants are at risk of falling down because the fundamental support (reliable data and sound strategy) is so weak.

Ignoring Economic Storm Clouds with Unrealistic Projections

The timing of this statistical spin couldn’t be worse. While St. Maarten’s leaders pat themselves on the back over questionable tourism growth, storm clouds are gathering in the broader economy. The United States – our main source of visitors – has been grappling with high inflation and the prospect of reduced consumer spending. American travelers are starting to feel the pinch from rising prices. As the cost of flights, hotels, and basic expenses climbs, more people are opting for “staycations” or shorter trips closer to home (Looking Back at 2024 – Caribbean Travel Industry – Figment Design). In other words, the very tourists we count on might scale back their Caribbean getaways if economic conditions stay tight. Already, travel analysts note that many consumers are becoming budget-conscious and looking for deals, or postponing big vacation plans.

If St. Maarten’s government is banking on ever-increasing tourism numbers without a realistic view of these headwinds, they’re setting us up for a nasty surprise. Unrealistic projections can lead to overallocation of resources, misguided marketing, or overconfidence that tomorrow will automatically be better than today. We’ve seen this happen before: officials forecast a record season, then act stunned when a dip happens because airfare got too expensive or people chose cheaper destinations. By ignoring the warning signs of U.S. inflation and shifting travel behavior, our tourism planners risk being unprepared for a potential downturn. Even investors are warier in an inflationary climate – the cost of financing new hotels or attractions has gone up as interest rates rise. It’s already harder for investors to secure capital for tourism projects due to higher loan costs (Looking Back at 2024 – Caribbean Travel Industry – Figment Design). If we’re out there painting a picture of runaway growth that doesn’t materialize, we will shatter investor confidence and look foolish to our airline partners who track demand far more rigorously than our spreadsheets do.

In short, now is the time for caution and honesty, not triumphalism. Yes, 2024 saw a rebound as we continued recovering from the pandemic and hurricanes – but that was low-hanging fruit. The real test is what we do next, with global economic conditions tightening. Making grand predictions of unending growth while refusing to acknowledge economic reality is a recipe for a credibility crisis.

Time to Get Serious: Transparency, Accuracy, Accountability

Enough is enough. St. Maarten must urgently reform how it collects, analyzes, and shares tourism data – or risk further embarrassment and economic damage. The first step is radical transparency. The days of hiding numbers or dribbling out partial data need to end. The government should commit to releasing regular, comprehensive tourism statistics – perhaps quarterly reports – that are accessible to the public and stakeholders. No more cryptic spreadsheets dropped without context; we need clear summaries and analysis, similar to what St. Barths and other successful destinations provide.. This includes separating out different categories (stay-over visitors vs. cruise passengers vs. returning residents) so that everyone can understand the real picture. Trustworthy data is the bedrock of good policy. When the information is credible, we can have honest discussions about tourism strategy instead of debates based on guesswork and spin.

Next, fix the data collection process. It’s 2025 – there’s no excuse for relying on incomplete immigration cards and anecdotal evidence. The government should prioritize the installation and use of an automated arrivals tracking system, as was recommended years ago. In fact, such a system was in the works before being postponed after Irma (World Bank Document) – it’s time to dust off that plan and get it done. We should also consider establishing a dedicated Tourism Statistics Unit or Observatory, possibly in partnership with regional organizations or even modeled after the Aruba Tourism Authority’s approach. Aruba transformed its Tourism Authority into a more autonomous data-driven agency, which helped improve decision-making and marketing (World Bank Document). St. Maarten could similarly empower an independent body to gather and audit tourism data, ensuring it’s not subject to political manipulation. Accurate data collection and professional analysis will boost our credibility with airlines, tour operators, and investors. When they see that we’re serious about numbers, they’ll treat our proposals and projections with greater respect.

We also need an attitude change: accountability over public relations. Ministers and officials must stop scrambling to put a positive spin on everything and start confronting reality, even if it means admitting a short-term decline or a data limitation. There is no shame in saying “we don’t have that figure yet” or “we believe our counting method needs improvement” – the shame is in pretending everything is fine when it isn’t. By being transparent about our challenges (for example, publicly acknowledging the gaps identified by the World Bank (World Bank Document), the government can actually earn more trust. Stakeholders would much rather hear, “We discovered issues X and Y, and here’s how we plan to address them,” than be fed another glossy story built on shaky stats.

Finally, St. Maarten’s leadership must recognize that data credibility is as important as the numbers themselves. Each time we overstate a growth figure or hide a decline, we chip away at our reputation. In the age of big data, investors do their homework – they will cross-check our claims against airline load factors, hotel occupancy rates, and regional trends. If we cry “record arrivals!” one year and can’t back it up the next, they won’t trust our proclamations going forward. Similarly, airlines deciding on new routes look at stable, verified demand. They won’t commit an aircraft to a route that’s hyped up by unreliable counts. Restoring credibility means telling the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth when it comes to tourism performance.

Conclusion: No More Flags and Holding Up Pants – It’s Time for Real Reform

St. Maarten’s tourism sector is too vital to be left at the mercy of poor data and political spin. The world is watching, and so far we’ve given them reason to doubt us. We’ve seen what good looks like – just over in St. Barths – and we’ve heard experts warn how bad data can lead to bad outcomes. Continuing on the current path is like waving our flag while desperately holding up our pants, a short-lived balancing act destined to fail. Instead, let’s secure our fundamentals: honest numbers, openly shared, and a commitment to continuous improvement in how we gather and use data.

St. Maarten can and must do better. Let’s demand a tourism statistical system that is modern, transparent, and credible. Let’s hold officials accountable not for the prettiness of the press release, but for the accuracy of the content. By doing so, we will not only avoid further embarrassment but also build a foundation of trust. Investors will have confidence that St. Maarten knows its market. Airlines will base decisions on solid figures. And we, the people of St. Maarten, will be able to take genuine pride in our tourism industry’s performance – because we’ll know that the success is real, not just a PR mirage.

The time for reform is now. Our tourism lifeblood deserves no less than truth and transparency. The world will respect us more when we stop lying with statistics and start facing the music. St. Maarten’s future competitiveness depends on it. Let’s get to work – and let the data speak honestly for itself, good or bad. That is the only way to turn this troubling situation into a triumph we can trust.

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Related articles:
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St. Barths Shares Its Tourism Data, Why Can’t St. Maarten?
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AI-Powered Travel: AirStMaarten’s Next-Gen Booking System & Caribavia 2025’s Focus on AI in Aviation
Time for a New Vision for St. Maarten’s Aviation Future
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